Think You’ll Choose Your Retirement Date? Not If This Happens
One of the more interesting ideas to make its way from Japanese culture into the American mainstream is the Zen koan.
If you’re not familiar with the term, a koan is a very short question or story that seems paradoxical. The point isn't necessarily to find a clever answer. It's intended to make you reconsider the assumptions that made the question seem impossible in the first place.
You probably know the most famous example: What is the sound of one hand clapping?
(I admit, I’m still working on that one.)
Now, I am definitely not qualified to teach you Zen philosophy. I spend my working days thinking about retirement, savings and the economy.
And lately, the U.S. job market has given us a sort of Zen koan of its own…
The job market’s strange paradox
Here it is:
The U.S. lost jobs in July – and the unemployment rate went down.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), non-farm jobs declined by 23,000 in July. Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected an increase of 80,000.
On top of that, previously reported job growth in May and June was revised downward by a combined 103,000 jobs. So a combined 126,000 jobs just went away.
Yet the unemployment rate didn't go up.
Instead, it fell from to 4.1%.
Now, at first glance, that seems impossible. If there are fewer jobs, shouldn't there be more unemployed people?
Well, not necessarily.
When I say “unemployment,” I imagine someone who doesn’t have a job. The BLS disagrees. They only count someone as “unemployed” only if:
- They don’t have a job
- They are available to work
- They’ve actively looked for work during the previous four weeks
Someone who just stops looking for work generally stops being counted as unemployed.
That distinction mattered enormously in July.
Reuters tells us about 264,000 people left the labor force. The overall labor force participation rate fell to 61.4% (near a 5½-year low).
In other words, unemployment didn't decline because employers suddenly went on a hiring spree!
It declined because the number of people participating in the labor force declined.
In a sense, that’s the answer to our riddle: How can jobs disappear and unemployment fall? Well, it depends on your definition of “unemployment.”
Now, I don't think one month (or even three consecutive months) of disappointing employment numbers means the economy is falling apart.
Neither do many analysts. Reuters noted that seasonal quirks may have contributed to July's weakness, and some economists still describe the labor market as being in a “slow hire, slow fire” environment. Not an abrupt downturn.
That's an important distinction.
But for Americans approaching retirement, there's a much more important lesson here. Whether economists eventually call July a good month, a bad month or statistical noise, today we’re going to ask a hard question...
Your retirement plan may depend on your ability to keep working. But your ability to keep working doesn't depend entirely on you.
What if you don’t get to choose your retirement date?
A lot of retirement planning starts with an assumption that sounds perfectly reasonable: I'll work until age 65.
Maybe 67. Maybe 70 – the exact number doesn't matter.
What matters is the assumption that you will get to choose when you stop working.
That’s not always the case.
The Employee Benefit Research Institute's 2026 Retirement Confidence Survey shows just how unreliable that assumption can be.
Workers surveyed by EBRI expected to retire at a median age of 65.
Actual retirees? Their median retirement age was 62.
Worse, nearly half (46%) of retirees said they retired earlier than they’d planned.
That means, on average, a three-year gap between expectation and reality.
Now, for someone in their 30s, three years might not sound like much.
For someone approaching retirement, those three years can represent a lot: That’s a loss of three years of paychecks. It’s three fewer years of adding to retirement savings – and three fewer years of those savings growing. Most of all, it’s another three years those savings need to cover.
And here's the part that really concerns me. This is why I’m writing about it today.
Among those who left work earlier than planned, the survey found that the vast majority (76%) cited at least one reason outside their control:
- Health problem or disability: 41%
- Employer changes (downsizing, business closure etc.): 35%
- Need to care for a spouse or family member: 16%
- Obsolete skills: 11%
There are a couple of happy reasons to retire early. A few people discover they've saved more than enough, or were offered an early-retirement incentive by their employer. Others simply decide they'd rather spend their time doing something else.
Good for them!
That's very different from walking into work one morning and learning your position no longer exists – or that your skills are no longer relevant.
Or getting bad news in a doctor's office that the career you expected to continue for another five years simply isn't possible anymore.
Those are the ones that concern me, because they aren't “retirement decisions” in the usual sense.
They're ultimatums – retirement dates chosen for you.
Working longer is a strategy – but not a guarantee
This wouldn’t be such a challenge for those who have ample retirement savings. In fact, most of us don’t.
Transamerica’s 2026 retirement survey tells us that working longer is simply part of the plan for nearly half of Americans:
- 44% of workers expect to retire after age 65
- 6% say they never plan to retire at all
- Separately, 51% expect to keep working full- or part-time after they retire
Distressingly, those aged 50 and older say they’ll keep working in their field “as long as possible… until I cannot work anymore.”
Clearly, working longer is clearly part of the plan for many Americans. But actually being able to work longer is another matter.
See, this is where the July employment report becomes more relevant than the headline unemployment rate suggests.
When a retirement calculator tells you that you can improve your situation by working longer, the math may be perfectly sound.
After all, another year of income means another year of saving and one less year of relying on those savings in retirement.
But there's an assumption buried inside that arithmetic: The job will still be there.
Sometimes it won't be.
And losing a job late in your career can create difficult decisions.
Take Social Security, for example.
Retiring early doesn't necessarily mean claiming Social Security benefits immediately. (Those are two separate decisions.)
But if your paycheck suddenly vanishes, you might not have a choice about when to begin collecting those benefits.
For anyone born in 1960 or later, the Social Security Administration says full retirement age is 67. You can claim benefits at age 62, but they’ll be about 30% lower than the full retirement age benefit.
Now, I'm not telling you when you should retire or when you should claim Social Security. Those decisions depend on your circumstances. I'm making a simpler point:
“I'll just work longer” is not a complete retirement plan.
It is a plan that depends on your health, your employer, your profession and the broader economy all cooperating with your plans!
Sometimes they do. But sometimes they don't.
So what can we do about it?
Building a retirement plan with room for the unexpected
That, to me, is the real lesson in July's employment numbers. We can’t take some things for granted.
Your retirement plan can look perfectly reasonable on paper, while resting on assumptions you don't control:
- I'll keep working
- My health won’t be a problem
- My expenses won't change too much
- Inflation will settle down
- I’ll be able to keep saving at the same rate
- The economy will cooperate
Maybe all of those things happen according to your plan. I’m happy for you!
But retirement planning shouldn't require everything to go along with your assumptions. If there’s one thing I’ve learned from all these years of watching the economy, it’s that we must expect the unexpected.
That's one major reason diversification in your retirement savings matters a great deal more than you might think.
Diversification isn't about predicting the next recession, the next inflation surge or the next round of layoffs. It's about acknowledging that we don't know exactly what comes next – and avoiding the assumption that our savings will respond to uncertainty in a predictable way.
Diversification requires humility. In order to take this vital step, we have to admit that we can’t see the future. That we can’t be perfectly confident in our ability to control our situations. Some people simply find that hard to accept. I sympathize, I really do.
But the truth is, we can’t predict how our lives will go. We can’t control the economy, or our employer’s staffing decisions. So let’s focus on what we can control: Our health. When we claim Social Security benefits. And how we choose to diversify our savings.
You probably already know I’m a big believer in the benefits of physical precious metals ownership. Gold and silver do fluctuate in price, but both have enjoyed a centuries-long track record as safe haven investments. They are tangible stores of value, completely independent of an employer, central bank or government promise. The price of gold especially tends to thrive when other financial assets struggle, making it an excellent diversification asset.
If your retirement plan has too many assumptions built into it – or if your retirement plan included working longer than seems likely – you may benefit from learning more about physical precious metals. These assets aren't appropriate for every financial goal, after all (and you know your situation better than I do).
To learn more, request your copy of the free 2026 Precious Metals Information Kit right now. You’ll learn the benefits of physical precious metals ownership and how to add IRA-eligible precious metals to your tax-advantaged retirement accounts.
Whether or not physical precious metals are right for you, please remember one thing from this article: Most Americans find themselves retiring earlier than they expected.
Please make sure your own retirement plan includes room for such unexpected and unwelcome developments.
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