From Birch Gold Group
As we approach the date when the election is to be confirmed, Joe Biden’s intentions toward the U.S. economy are also getting a bit clearer.
And he doesn’t appear to be starting off on the right foot when it comes to your hard-earned retirement dollars. Here’s why…
Biden would be starting his transition with a “special coronavirus advisory team” to address whatever remains of the COVID-19 pandemic that began in December 2019.
That team now includes Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center of Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.
His first bit of advice to Biden reads like a page out of China’s COVID playbook. In theXianjiang territory in northwest China, it looked like this:
In mid-July, officials declared a “wartime mode” for the region. Community officials continue to go door to door, sealing doors with paper strips, tape and in some cases metal bars, to prevent residents from leaving their homes.
Biden’s advisor Osterholm recommends a 4 to 6 week nationwide lockdown.
ZeroHedge summed up the potential consequences, saying, “the U.S. is heading for dark days if something isn’t done.” The same piece also summed up Dr. Osterholm’s confidence in his proposal:
We could pay for a package right now to cover all of the wages, lost wages for individual workers for losses to small companies to medium-sized companies or city, state, county governments. We could do all of that… If we did that, then we could lockdown for four-to-six weeks.
Not everyone agrees with the idea of another U.S. lockdown. In fact, JP Morgan reported that the virus spread in countries either with or without severe lockdowns was about the same.
The first time they were tried earlier this year, state governors took the lead, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost a whopping 10,959 points between February 12 and March 23. The chart below shows just how steep of a drop it was:
In fairness, according to CNBC, a Biden transition official told NBC News that a shutdown “is not in line with the president-elect’s thinking.”
But that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. Politicians lie to the public when it’s convenient, and they change their minds all the time.
So what could we expect if Biden suddenly supports Dr. Osterholm’s lockdown recommendations?
A Dow Drop of “3,000 – 4,000 Points at Least”
David Nelson, a veteran strategist at Belpointe Asset Management, expects the Dow to drop more than 3,000 points if a nationwide lockdown begins in early 2021.
But that’s speculation of course. A repeat of late February could easily happen, depending on various factors. In fact, just the news of Dr. Osterholm’s recommendation of a nationwide lockdown caused a 300-point drop.
Nelson seemed certain “the markets wouldn’t like [a lockdown]. I don’t think the markets are pricing that in at all.”
If the markets aren’t pricing in this possibility, that’s just one more reason you should prepare your savings for the worst and hope for the best.
Consider This Hedge Against a National Lockdown
Assuming Dr. Osterholm’s recommendation plays out, prices could surge yet again when another round of ripple effects from a strangled economy emerge.
So make sure you take this limited opportunity to examine your retirement, and consider adding precious metals to bolster it before time runs out.