Gold Didn’t Just Rally – the Rules Quietly Changed
Your News to Know rounds up the most important developments in precious metals and the broader economy. This week, we’ll discuss:
- The top three precious metals stories of 2025
- Expert outlines the "precious metals war" that’s just beginning
- UBS sees gold possibly climbing to $5,400 this year
The top 3 precious metals stories of 2025
I've gotten into a habit of recapping the top three stories of the previous year. Very often over the last few years, the top stories of the two metals are always related to price gains.
There's not much to do, though, but give gold and silver their due...
#1. Gold reaches $4,500
Gold's climb to $4,500 was many things.
It was a forceful catch-up for gold in U.S. dollar terms after it had already posted similar performances in every other.
It was an exposure of how weak the supply side is, particularly to sudden demand and particularly if that demand was specific.
It was a return into value, on behalf of every investor that could spare a coin.
Although, apparently, private investors are still lagging behind in demand.
It was also not many things, like the reasons why we're told it's climbing on a given day.
Gold's price gain on its own is my top story pick of 2025, but the reluctance of the mainstream to address what exactly is behind these massive gold price moves is worthy of follow-up. There are clues about the true state of the economy, despite mainstream media’s constant damage control efforts. Rest assured, I’ll keep covering the real stories behind the headlines.
#2. Silver breaks out of a 50-year range
Another easy pick, but some might forget that silver's doldrums lasted 50 years. Granted, there was some move towards $50 in 2011, but it resulted in nothing lasting. Silver has been trying, and failing, to capture a price last seen during the Carter administration.
When it finally accomplished that, silver price simply took off. (Like plenty of analysts, including myself, predicted it would.)
However, many questions still linger. Silver could have just as easily broken through $90 – but didn't. Not yet at least.
So now we face a big question: Will silver’s nominal all-time highs bring in a flood of supply as punters hock the family silverware? Or will demand for physical silver from both investing and industrial sectors remain tight, potentially powering a run to that $100 to $200 level so many call “silver’s fair price”?
Exciting (and profitable!) times for silver owners, to be sure.
#3. Institutional gold demand heats up
Not as obvious as the price stories, but one to watch regardless… I’ve been telling you about record-setting central bank gold buying for nearly four years now. Central banks haven’t notably slowed down – and now other institutions are getting in on the action.
Consider the case of Tether, now the world’s largest private gold owner with 116 metric tons reported. Tether’s reported gold buying actually surpassed any single central bank’s gold buying in the third quarter of 2025.
From Tether’s perspective, I’d argue that this is a very smart diversification move! After all, Tether’s reserves already hold about $10 billion in bitcoin and over $100 billion in U.S. government debt – that’s a lot of risk on Tether’s books. Excellent risk management, great diversification – makes you wonder why they didn’t do this sooner. (Probably because crypto enthusiasts are calling this shift, with Tether’s bitcoin reserves actually smaller than its gold reserves, “A betrayal of its principles,” or “Defying its own crypto narrative.”)
Think about it! A private company now has the reserves of a gold-owning sovereign nation (as much as Middle Eastern oil empire Qatar, twice as much as Australia’s central bank according to the latest numbers from the World Gold Council).
This same private company is primarily in the business of issuing digital versions of the U.S. dollar.
Interestingly, Tether may now have a better position to print dollars than the Federal Reserve does. Like the Fed, Tether’s reserves have never been audited… but at least Tether’s liabilities seem very closely matched to its assets (unlike our own central bank).
There's a little bit of everything in this story, but it's overall one of the biggest cases for diversification with gold bullion I’ve seen in a long time.
Scottsdale Mint CEO on the “precious metals war”
Josh Phair, founder and CEO of Scottsdale Mint, said why he feels gold and silver are performing well in the current economic environment. A lot of Phair's insight revolves around silver, as it exemplifies what's going on with precious metals prices generally.
Many things went unnoticed last year even though silver got plenty of spotlight.
Silver "fell" because COMEX raised margin requirements for some contracts, which forced overleveraged traders to liquidate speculative positions. Although the mainstream acknowledged a supply squeeze, they immediately dismissed it as quickly resolved.
There might have been a silver squeeze, but it was neither a surprise, nor temporary.
Remember, silver supply is in an annual deficit of 200 million ounces for the last five years at least. Does that sound “temporary” to you?
Phair says also not to be overlooked is the U.S. government adding silver to its critical minerals list, which regular readers are well aware of.
As Phair notes, as part of a broader push towards value, both gold and silver are being bought up as if they're going out of stock. (Which they probably are.)
Phair also pointed out that the inflation-adjusted high for silver of $50 in 1980 is over $200 today, wondering if that gives room for silver investors today to remain dissatisfied with prices. Bank of America’s head of metals research Michael Widmer forecast an ambitious price target for silver in 2026, between $135 and $309 per ounce! (That’s simply based on the gold to silver ratio.)
Something to keep in mind as China almost removes itself from the list of silver exporters globally, continuing the ongoing theme of everyone wondering where the ore is coming from.
UBS forecasts $5,000 gold by September, says $5,400 is an option
UBS has updated its forecast for gold in 2026, and the revised figures do not leave one wanting.
Their base target is $5,000, up from the previous forecast of $4,300. UBS correctly points out that since all the demand drivers are still in play and arguably getting reinforced, there is little to suggest the current trajectory will change.
The potential change, should it happen, will be to even more upside, says UBS.
They leave open the road to $5,400, saying that either political or financial risks could launch gold towards that target.
We have seen nothing but those for what is going on six years, leaving us only with the question of how high might they climb.
The current rate appears more than sufficient, as either figure will leave gold 3x off its $1,650 resistance where this leg of the run kicked off some two and a half years ago.
UBS' drivers are basic gold stuff, like I said. Low real yields, global economic vulnerability and a special focus on the U.S. in regards to the latter.
As has been the case for some years, the risks that UBS needs to flag for a more balanced analysis in the form of a hawkish Federal Reserve or possible central bank sales just aren't reality.
If someone goes over an asset and sees that it has little to no downside, it's usually a good indication of where it is headed.
UBS is one of several large banks to up their gold forecasts recently, and they normally follow a format of base, bullish and bearish case.
Increasingly, as we observe the bearish cases, they consist of mostly impossible or far-fetched scenarios just to exist.
Gold's bullish case has, on the other hand, more often than not amounted to "if more of the same keeps happening".
This tells us we're well into the bull times in the gold market.
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